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    The LeBaron Letter
    Capital & Real Estate Insights: WEEKLY
    Latest Issue
    Distressed office

    Three Deals. Three Cities.
    15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.

    Commercial Real Estate10 min read

    On April 9, David Werner closed on a 193,000-square-foot office building in Hell's Kitchen for just over $40 million. DivcoWest paid $131 million for it in 2018. That is not a discount. That is an equity gift.

    And Werner is not alone. Three deals. Three cities. All within the last three weeks. All purchased at a fraction of what they last traded for.

    CRE Debt Maturity Wall ($B)

    2025
    2026
    2027

    In 2025, $957 billion in commercial mortgages matured. In 2026, another $875B to $936B is set to mature. And in 2027, the wall peaks at $1.26 trillion.

    $957B
    2025 CRE Maturities
    15-50c
    Cents on the Dollar
    82%
    5-Yr Returns '91-'93

    Office acquisitions made during the 1991 to 1993 downturn delivered average five-year returns of 82%. The 2009 to 2011 vintage? Average five-year returns of 67%.

    Distressed Office Vintage Returns (%)

    '91-'93
    '09-'11

    Real estate is now the top asset class for family offices at 39% of allocations. Aggregate deal value jumped from $2.1B to $7.5B.

    39%
    Family Office RE Allocation
    $1.26T
    2027 Maturity Peak

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    Andrew LeBaron with Richard Wilson
    "

    I've personally partnered with Andrew in a venture and I can say he is diligent and persistent and doesn't quit. He is well connected, and has brought a Co-founder of an IPO who partnered with Blackstone to my conference and we were able to put him on stage. Andrew is an asset to many no doubt.

    Richard Wilson

    CEO, Family Office Club · Kailua, Hawaii

    Latest Issues

    12 articles in Commercial Real Estate › Multifamily

    Active filterFiltered by:Escto clearBackspaceto drop subcategory
    Apartment Insurance Just Split Into Two Markets. Your Underwriting Model Doesn't Know Yet.
    June 17, 20269 min read

    Apartment Insurance Just Split Into Two Markets. Your Underwriting Model Doesn't Know Yet.

    Read
    The Distressed Apartment Wave Finally Showed Up. Two Years Late. Here Is What Changed.
    June 10, 20269 min read

    The Distressed Apartment Wave Finally Showed Up. Two Years Late. Here Is What Changed.

    Read
    Apartment Debt Just Hit An All-Time High. Most Investors Are Reading It Backwards.
    May 20, 20268 min read

    Apartment Debt Just Hit An All-Time High. Most Investors Are Reading It Backwards.

    Read
    NEVER SaaS Your Landlord (especially when you can't pay the rent)
    April 22, 202613 min read

    NEVER SaaS Your Landlord (especially when you can't pay the rent)

    Read
    The 2026 Adaptive Reuse Pipeline: 70,700 Units and Growing
    January 12, 20266 min read

    The 2026 Adaptive Reuse Pipeline: 70,700 Units and Growing

    Read
    DC's 20-Year Tax Abatement: A Blueprint for Conversion Success
    December 1, 20256 min read

    DC's 20-Year Tax Abatement: A Blueprint for Conversion Success

    Read
    Sun Belt Squeeze: Why Multifamily Margins Are Compressing
    November 24, 20255 min read

    Sun Belt Squeeze: Why Multifamily Margins Are Compressing

    Read
    Denver's $56 Million Bet on Office Conversions
    September 15, 20255 min read

    Denver's $56 Million Bet on Office Conversions

    Read
    Manhattan's Metamorphosis: NYC Leads the Office Conversion Wave
    May 26, 20256 min read

    Manhattan's Metamorphosis: NYC Leads the Office Conversion Wave

    Read
    22.4 Million Reasons: Multifamily Rental Hits an All-Time High
    March 24, 20255 min read

    22.4 Million Reasons: Multifamily Rental Hits an All-Time High

    Read
    70,700 Reasons to Love Adaptive Reuse: Office Conversions Hit Record
    March 10, 20255 min read

    70,700 Reasons to Love Adaptive Reuse: Office Conversions Hit Record

    Read
    FHA's Valentine to Multifamily: New Rules Open the Floodgates
    February 17, 20255 min read

    FHA's Valentine to Multifamily: New Rules Open the Floodgates

    Read

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