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    The LeBaron Letter
    Capital & Real Estate Insights: WEEKLY
    Latest Issue
    Distressed office

    Three Deals. Three Cities.
    15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.

    Commercial Real Estate10 min read

    On April 9, David Werner closed on a 193,000-square-foot office building in Hell's Kitchen for just over $40 million. DivcoWest paid $131 million for it in 2018. That is not a discount. That is an equity gift.

    And Werner is not alone. Three deals. Three cities. All within the last three weeks. All purchased at a fraction of what they last traded for.

    CRE Debt Maturity Wall ($B)

    2025
    2026
    2027

    In 2025, $957 billion in commercial mortgages matured. In 2026, another $875B to $936B is set to mature. And in 2027, the wall peaks at $1.26 trillion.

    $957B
    2025 CRE Maturities
    15-50c
    Cents on the Dollar
    82%
    5-Yr Returns '91-'93

    Office acquisitions made during the 1991 to 1993 downturn delivered average five-year returns of 82%. The 2009 to 2011 vintage? Average five-year returns of 67%.

    Distressed Office Vintage Returns (%)

    '91-'93
    '09-'11

    Real estate is now the top asset class for family offices at 39% of allocations. Aggregate deal value jumped from $2.1B to $7.5B.

    39%
    Family Office RE Allocation
    $1.26T
    2027 Maturity Peak

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    Andrew LeBaron with Richard Wilson
    "

    I've personally partnered with Andrew in a venture and I can say he is diligent and persistent and doesn't quit. He is well connected, and has brought a Co-founder of an IPO who partnered with Blackstone to my conference and we were able to put him on stage. Andrew is an asset to many no doubt.

    Richard Wilson

    CEO, Family Office Club · Kailua, Hawaii

    Latest Issues

    56 articles in Commercial Real Estate

    Active filterFiltered by:Commercial Real EstateEscto clear
    NEVER SaaS Your Landlord (especially when you can't pay the rent)
    April 22, 202613 min read

    NEVER SaaS Your Landlord (especially when you can't pay the rent)

    Read
    Three Deals. Three Cities. 15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.
    April 15, 202610 min read

    Three Deals. Three Cities. 15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.

    Read
    The Biggest Opportunity in Real Estate Since 2008
    March 31, 202614 min read

    The Biggest Opportunity in Real Estate Since 2008

    Read
    Confessions of a Recovering "Trophy" Hunter: Why $1.8 Trillion in Debt is Making "Boring" Beautiful
    February 23, 20267 min read

    Confessions of a Recovering "Trophy" Hunter: Why $1.8 Trillion in Debt is Making "Boring" Beautiful

    Read
    My 6-Year-Old Ran a Marathon: Why We Need to Do Hard Things (And Why Time Is Running Out)
    February 16, 20264 min read

    My 6-Year-Old Ran a Marathon: Why We Need to Do Hard Things (And Why Time Is Running Out)

    Read
    Beyond the Big Box: The Data Behind the Scattered-Site Senior Housing Revolution
    February 14, 20268 min read

    Beyond the Big Box: The Data Behind the Scattered-Site Senior Housing Revolution

    Read
    The Specialization Pivot: Why Student and Senior Housing are the CRE Powerhouses of 2026
    February 20264 min read

    The Specialization Pivot: Why Student and Senior Housing are the CRE Powerhouses of 2026

    Read
    2026 Bold Predictions: The Year CRE Turns the Corner
    January 26, 20266 min read

    2026 Bold Predictions: The Year CRE Turns the Corner

    Read
    The 2026 Adaptive Reuse Pipeline: 70,700 Units and Growing
    January 12, 20266 min read

    The 2026 Adaptive Reuse Pipeline: 70,700 Units and Growing

    Read
    Senior Housing 2026 Forecast: 90% Occupancy Within Reach
    January 5, 20266 min read

    Senior Housing 2026 Forecast: 90% Occupancy Within Reach

    Read
    Student Housing 2026 Preview: What Smart Money Is Watching
    December 29, 20256 min read

    Student Housing 2026 Preview: What Smart Money Is Watching

    Read
    Year-End Capital Markets: 2025 in Review
    December 22, 20256 min read

    Year-End Capital Markets: 2025 in Review

    Read

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