Raise & Allocate More Capital.
    Think Like an Insider.

    Every week I break down capital-raising strategy, CRE deal structures, and what institutional investors are actually looking for — straight to your inbox.

    Join 23,000+ investors. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

    9:41
    The LeBaron Letter
    Capital & Real Estate Insights: WEEKLY
    Latest Issue
    Distressed office

    Three Deals. Three Cities.
    15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.

    Commercial Real Estate10 min read

    On April 9, David Werner closed on a 193,000-square-foot office building in Hell's Kitchen for just over $40 million. DivcoWest paid $131 million for it in 2018. That is not a discount. That is an equity gift.

    And Werner is not alone. Three deals. Three cities. All within the last three weeks. All purchased at a fraction of what they last traded for.

    CRE Debt Maturity Wall ($B)

    2025
    2026
    2027

    In 2025, $957 billion in commercial mortgages matured. In 2026, another $875B to $936B is set to mature. And in 2027, the wall peaks at $1.26 trillion.

    $957B
    2025 CRE Maturities
    15-50c
    Cents on the Dollar
    82%
    5-Yr Returns '91-'93

    Office acquisitions made during the 1991 to 1993 downturn delivered average five-year returns of 82%. The 2009 to 2011 vintage? Average five-year returns of 67%.

    Distressed Office Vintage Returns (%)

    '91-'93
    '09-'11

    Real estate is now the top asset class for family offices at 39% of allocations. Aggregate deal value jumped from $2.1B to $7.5B.

    39%
    Family Office RE Allocation
    $1.26T
    2027 Maturity Peak

    Subscribe Free

    Join 23,000+ investors and operators

    your@email.com
    Andrew LeBaron with Richard Wilson
    "

    I've personally partnered with Andrew in a venture and I can say he is diligent and persistent and doesn't quit. He is well connected, and has brought a Co-founder of an IPO who partnered with Blackstone to my conference and we were able to put him on stage. Andrew is an asset to many no doubt.

    Richard Wilson

    CEO, Family Office Club · Kailua, Hawaii

    Latest Issues

    31 articles in Commercial Real Estate › Market Analysis

    Active filterFiltered by:Escto clearBackspaceto drop subcategory
    Apartment Insurance Just Split Into Two Markets. Your Underwriting Model Doesn't Know Yet.
    June 17, 20269 min read

    Apartment Insurance Just Split Into Two Markets. Your Underwriting Model Doesn't Know Yet.

    Read
    The Distressed Apartment Wave Finally Showed Up. Two Years Late. Here Is What Changed.
    June 10, 20269 min read

    The Distressed Apartment Wave Finally Showed Up. Two Years Late. Here Is What Changed.

    Read
    Wealthy Families Are Splitting Into Two Camps On Real Estate. Pitch The Wrong One And You Lose.
    June 3, 20269 min read

    Wealthy Families Are Splitting Into Two Camps On Real Estate. Pitch The Wrong One And You Lose.

    Read
    Apartment Debt Just Hit An All-Time High. Most Investors Are Reading It Backwards.
    May 20, 20268 min read

    Apartment Debt Just Hit An All-Time High. Most Investors Are Reading It Backwards.

    Read
    Why Family Offices Don't Care About Your Track Record
    May 6, 202613 min read

    Why Family Offices Don't Care About Your Track Record

    Read
    Niches Don't Matter Anymore...Kinda
    April 30, 202611 min read

    Niches Don't Matter Anymore...Kinda

    Read
    NEVER SaaS Your Landlord (especially when you can't pay the rent)
    April 22, 202613 min read

    NEVER SaaS Your Landlord (especially when you can't pay the rent)

    Read
    Confessions of a Recovering "Trophy" Hunter: Why $1.8 Trillion in Debt is Making "Boring" Beautiful
    February 23, 20267 min read

    Confessions of a Recovering "Trophy" Hunter: Why $1.8 Trillion in Debt is Making "Boring" Beautiful

    Read
    The Specialization Pivot: Why Student and Senior Housing are the CRE Powerhouses of 2026
    February 20264 min read

    The Specialization Pivot: Why Student and Senior Housing are the CRE Powerhouses of 2026

    Read
    2026 Bold Predictions: The Year CRE Turns the Corner
    January 26, 20266 min read

    2026 Bold Predictions: The Year CRE Turns the Corner

    Read
    Year-End Capital Markets: 2025 in Review
    December 22, 20256 min read

    Year-End Capital Markets: 2025 in Review

    Read
    The Bottom Is In: CRE Values Confirmed Their Floor
    December 8, 20256 min read

    The Bottom Is In: CRE Values Confirmed Their Floor

    Read

    All the data contained within this website is as of 2026 unless otherwise noted. The material on this website is intended for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment advice or analysis, or a recommendation, or an offer of solicitation, and is not the basis for any contract or other agreement to make any investment, or for Andrew LeBaron, LeBaron Capital Partners, LLC, or any of their affiliated entities to enter into or arrange any type of transaction. Nothing on this website should be construed as a guarantee of any particular outcome or result.

    Past Performance: Any performance data or comments expressed on this website are an indication of past performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past, or that significant losses will be avoided. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

    Forward-Looking Statements: The contents of this website may contain forward-looking statements that are based on management's beliefs, assumptions, current expectations, estimates, and projections about the real estate industry, the financial industry, the economy, Andrew LeBaron, LeBaron Capital Partners, LLC, and their affiliated entities and investments. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict with regard to timing, extent, likelihood and degree of occurrence. Therefore, actual results and outcomes may materially differ from what may be expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. Furthermore, Andrew LeBaron and LeBaron Capital Partners, LLC undertake no obligation to update, amend or clarify forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    No Professional Advice: The information provided on this website does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice. You should consult your own professional advisors before making any investment decisions. Andrew LeBaron and LeBaron Capital Partners, LLC are not registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, or financial planners.