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    The LeBaron Letter
    Capital & Real Estate Insights: WEEKLY
    Latest Issue
    Distressed office

    Three Deals. Three Cities.
    15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.

    Commercial Real Estate10 min read

    On April 9, David Werner closed on a 193,000-square-foot office building in Hell's Kitchen for just over $40 million. DivcoWest paid $131 million for it in 2018. That is not a discount. That is an equity gift.

    And Werner is not alone. Three deals. Three cities. All within the last three weeks. All purchased at a fraction of what they last traded for.

    CRE Debt Maturity Wall ($B)

    2025
    2026
    2027

    In 2025, $957 billion in commercial mortgages matured. In 2026, another $875B to $936B is set to mature. And in 2027, the wall peaks at $1.26 trillion.

    $957B
    2025 CRE Maturities
    15-50c
    Cents on the Dollar
    82%
    5-Yr Returns '91-'93

    Office acquisitions made during the 1991 to 1993 downturn delivered average five-year returns of 82%. The 2009 to 2011 vintage? Average five-year returns of 67%.

    Distressed Office Vintage Returns (%)

    '91-'93
    '09-'11

    Real estate is now the top asset class for family offices at 39% of allocations. Aggregate deal value jumped from $2.1B to $7.5B.

    39%
    Family Office RE Allocation
    $1.26T
    2027 Maturity Peak

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    Andrew LeBaron with Richard Wilson
    "

    I've personally partnered with Andrew in a venture and I can say he is diligent and persistent and doesn't quit. He is well connected, and has brought a Co-founder of an IPO who partnered with Blackstone to my conference and we were able to put him on stage. Andrew is an asset to many no doubt.

    Richard Wilson

    CEO, Family Office Club · Kailua, Hawaii

    Latest Issues

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