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    The LeBaron Letter
    Capital & Real Estate Insights: WEEKLY
    Latest Issue
    Distressed office

    Three Deals. Three Cities.
    15 to 50 Cents on the Dollar.

    Commercial Real Estate10 min read

    On April 9, David Werner closed on a 193,000-square-foot office building in Hell's Kitchen for just over $40 million. DivcoWest paid $131 million for it in 2018. That is not a discount. That is an equity gift.

    And Werner is not alone. Three deals. Three cities. All within the last three weeks. All purchased at a fraction of what they last traded for.

    CRE Debt Maturity Wall ($B)

    2025
    2026
    2027

    In 2025, $957 billion in commercial mortgages matured. In 2026, another $875B to $936B is set to mature. And in 2027, the wall peaks at $1.26 trillion.

    $957B
    2025 CRE Maturities
    15-50c
    Cents on the Dollar
    82%
    5-Yr Returns '91-'93

    Office acquisitions made during the 1991 to 1993 downturn delivered average five-year returns of 82%. The 2009 to 2011 vintage? Average five-year returns of 67%.

    Distressed Office Vintage Returns (%)

    '91-'93
    '09-'11

    Real estate is now the top asset class for family offices at 39% of allocations. Aggregate deal value jumped from $2.1B to $7.5B.

    39%
    Family Office RE Allocation
    $1.26T
    2027 Maturity Peak

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    Andrew LeBaron with Richard Wilson
    "

    I've personally partnered with Andrew in a venture and I can say he is diligent and persistent and doesn't quit. He is well connected, and has brought a Co-founder of an IPO who partnered with Blackstone to my conference and we were able to put him on stage. Andrew is an asset to many no doubt.

    Richard Wilson

    CEO, Family Office Club · Kailua, Hawaii

    Latest Issues

    11 articles in Commercial Real Estate › Student Housing

    Active filterFiltered by:Escto clearBackspaceto drop subcategory
    The Specialization Pivot: Why Student and Senior Housing are the CRE Powerhouses of 2026
    February 20264 min read

    The Specialization Pivot: Why Student and Senior Housing are the CRE Powerhouses of 2026

    Read
    Student Housing 2026 Preview: What Smart Money Is Watching
    December 29, 20256 min read

    Student Housing 2026 Preview: What Smart Money Is Watching

    Read
    Student Housing Rents: $905 Per Bed and the Affordability Question
    November 3, 20255 min read

    Student Housing Rents: $905 Per Bed and the Affordability Question

    Read
    Building a Residential Portfolio from Scratch: 47 Doors in 18 Months
    October 15, 20257 min read

    Building a Residential Portfolio from Scratch: 47 Doors in 18 Months

    Read
    95.1% Occupancy: Student Housing Proves It's Recession-Proof
    September 29, 20255 min read

    95.1% Occupancy: Student Housing Proves It's Recession-Proof

    Read
    The Scattered-Site Student Housing Model: Why I'm Buying Duplexes Near Campus
    September 10, 20258 min read

    The Scattered-Site Student Housing Model: Why I'm Buying Duplexes Near Campus

    Read
    Fall Move-In Frenzy: Student Housing Pre-Leasing Hits 90%
    August 25, 20255 min read

    Fall Move-In Frenzy: Student Housing Pre-Leasing Hits 90%

    Read
    SEC and Big Ten Schools: Where Student Housing Dollars Flow
    July 21, 20254 min read

    SEC and Big Ten Schools: Where Student Housing Dollars Flow

    Read
    Student Housing's $3.7 Billion Semester: Where Investors Are Placing Bets
    June 2, 20255 min read

    Student Housing's $3.7 Billion Semester: Where Investors Are Placing Bets

    Read
    The Value-Add Playbook: Repositioning Student Housing for 2025
    April 28, 20255 min read

    The Value-Add Playbook: Repositioning Student Housing for 2025

    Read
    Pre-Leasing Season Kicks Off: Student Housing Starts 2025 Strong
    February 24, 20255 min read

    Pre-Leasing Season Kicks Off: Student Housing Starts 2025 Strong

    Read

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