TL;DR
CRE lending volumes surged 90% year-over-year in early 2025, with CBRE's Lending Momentum Index hitting 292 in Q1. Banks now account for roughly 60% of non-agency loan closings. With $1 trillion in CRE debt maturing this year and private CRE values having bottomed in Q4 2024, the window for strategic capital deployment is wide open. If you've been waiting for a signal, this is it.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Let me put the headline number in context: a 90% year-over-year increase in CRE lending is not a blip. CBRE's Lending Momentum Index reached 292 in Q1 2025, a level we haven't seen since the post-pandemic recovery started gaining real traction. This isn't just optimism — it's capital flowing back into the market with conviction.
Banks are leading the charge, accounting for approximately 60% of all non-agency loan closings. After nearly two years of pulling back, regional and national banks are competing for deals again. The spread compression we're seeing is real, and borrowers with strong sponsorship and solid assets are getting terms that would have been unthinkable 12 months ago.
CRE Lending Volume Index (2019–2025)
CRE lending activity plummeted during the rate-hike cycle of 2022–2023 but has begun recovering as lenders re-enter the market with improving confidence.
When capital markets reopen, the first movers capture the best risk-adjusted returns. History shows that the 12-18 months following a lending trough produce some of the best vintages in commercial real estate.
— Richard LeFrak, Chairman & CEO, LeFrak Organization
Think you know the capital raising landscape?
5 questions · ~3 min
What's Driving the Surge
Several factors are converging to create this lending environment. First, the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory has become clearer. While we're not back to the zero-rate world of 2020-2021, the market has priced in a more predictable path forward. Lenders can underwrite with confidence when they're not guessing where rates will be in six months.
Second, private CRE values bottomed in Q4 2024. That's not my opinion — it's what the data shows across multiple indices. When values stabilize, lenders get comfortable. When lenders get comfortable, capital flows. It's a virtuous cycle that we're now firmly in the middle of.
Third, there's competitive pressure. Banks that sat on the sidelines watched debt funds and life insurance companies capture market share. Now they want it back, and they're pricing aggressively to get it.
Bank Share of CRE Loan Closings (%)
Banks have steadily retreated from CRE lending, dropping from over 50% market share to under 40% as regulatory pressure and risk aversion reshape the capital landscape.
The Maturity Wall Opportunity
Here's where it gets really interesting. Approximately $1 trillion in CRE debt is maturing in 2025. That's not a crisis — it's an opportunity, but only if you're positioned correctly.
Many of these maturing loans were originated in 2020 and 2021 at historically low rates. Borrowers who overleveraged or bought at peak valuations are facing a reckoning. But for well-capitalized operators and sponsors, this creates a generational buying opportunity. Distressed refinancing situations are producing off-market acquisitions at basis levels we haven't seen in years.
At F6 Partners, we're actively working with our capital partners to identify these maturity-driven opportunities, particularly in the student and senior housing sectors where the fundamental demand story remains incredibly strong.
CRE Debt Maturities by Year ($B)
A massive wall of CRE debt is maturing in 2024–2026, forcing borrowers to refinance at significantly higher rates or face potential distress.
What This Means for Investors
If you're an LP or a prospective investor, the lending surge tells you several important things. The institutional market has moved from fear to greed — not irrational greed, but calculated, data-driven deployment. The cost of capital is still elevated compared to 2021, but the availability of capital has dramatically improved.
- Refinancing is possible again. If you're in a deal that needs to recapitalize, the options are significantly better than they were 12 months ago.
- New acquisitions pencil. With stabilized values and competitive lending terms, deals that didn't work at 7% cap rates and 8% debt are now workable.
- The window won't stay open forever. As more capital chases deals, pricing will tighten. The smart money is moving now while spreads are still favorable.
I've been doing this long enough to know that markets reward the prepared and punish the hesitant. The great thaw is here. The question is whether you're ready to move.
TL;DR
CRE lending volumes surged 90% year-over-year in early 2025, with CBRE's Lending Momentum Index hitting 292 in Q1. Banks now account for roughly 60% of non-agency loan closings. With $1 trillion in CRE debt maturing this year and private CRE values having bottomed in Q4 2024, the window for strategic capital deployment is wide open. If you've been waiting for a signal, this is it.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Let me put the headline number in context: a 90% year-over-year increase in CRE lending is not a blip. CBRE's Lending Momentum Index reached 292 in Q1 2025, a level we haven't seen since the post-pandemic recovery started gaining real traction. This isn't just optimism — it's capital flowing back into the market with conviction.
Banks are leading the charge, accounting for approximately 60% of all non-agency loan closings. After nearly two years of pulling back, regional and national banks are competing for deals again. The spread compression we're seeing is real, and borrowers with strong sponsorship and solid assets are getting terms that would have been unthinkable 12 months ago.
CRE Lending Volume Index (2019–2025)
CRE lending activity plummeted during the rate-hike cycle of 2022–2023 but has begun recovering as lenders re-enter the market with improving confidence.
When capital markets reopen, the first movers capture the best risk-adjusted returns. History shows that the 12-18 months following a lending trough produce some of the best vintages in commercial real estate.
— Richard LeFrak, Chairman & CEO, LeFrak Organization
Think you know the capital raising landscape?
5 questions · ~3 min
What's Driving the Surge
Several factors are converging to create this lending environment. First, the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory has become clearer. While we're not back to the zero-rate world of 2020-2021, the market has priced in a more predictable path forward. Lenders can underwrite with confidence when they're not guessing where rates will be in six months.
Second, private CRE values bottomed in Q4 2024. That's not my opinion — it's what the data shows across multiple indices. When values stabilize, lenders get comfortable. When lenders get comfortable, capital flows. It's a virtuous cycle that we're now firmly in the middle of.
Third, there's competitive pressure. Banks that sat on the sidelines watched debt funds and life insurance companies capture market share. Now they want it back, and they're pricing aggressively to get it.
Bank Share of CRE Loan Closings (%)
Banks have steadily retreated from CRE lending, dropping from over 50% market share to under 40% as regulatory pressure and risk aversion reshape the capital landscape.
The Maturity Wall Opportunity
Here's where it gets really interesting. Approximately $1 trillion in CRE debt is maturing in 2025. That's not a crisis — it's an opportunity, but only if you're positioned correctly.
Many of these maturing loans were originated in 2020 and 2021 at historically low rates. Borrowers who overleveraged or bought at peak valuations are facing a reckoning. But for well-capitalized operators and sponsors, this creates a generational buying opportunity. Distressed refinancing situations are producing off-market acquisitions at basis levels we haven't seen in years.
At F6 Partners, we're actively working with our capital partners to identify these maturity-driven opportunities, particularly in the student and senior housing sectors where the fundamental demand story remains incredibly strong.
CRE Debt Maturities by Year ($B)
A massive wall of CRE debt is maturing in 2024–2026, forcing borrowers to refinance at significantly higher rates or face potential distress.
What This Means for Investors
If you're an LP or a prospective investor, the lending surge tells you several important things. The institutional market has moved from fear to greed — not irrational greed, but calculated, data-driven deployment. The cost of capital is still elevated compared to 2021, but the availability of capital has dramatically improved.
- Refinancing is possible again. If you're in a deal that needs to recapitalize, the options are significantly better than they were 12 months ago.
- New acquisitions pencil. With stabilized values and competitive lending terms, deals that didn't work at 7% cap rates and 8% debt are now workable.
- The window won't stay open forever. As more capital chases deals, pricing will tighten. The smart money is moving now while spreads are still favorable.
I've been doing this long enough to know that markets reward the prepared and punish the hesitant. The great thaw is here. The question is whether you're ready to move.
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Andrew LeBaron
